Toronto Mike

The Odds Ain't Good


With the Blue Jays on a ten game winning streak, it's okay to dream.  We all ponder "what if" scenarios and wonder what might happen if we keep this up.  After all, anything is possible, right?

Wrong.  Ken Roberts has created an "odds of the making the playoffs" website. He calculates our Jays now have a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs.

If we go undefeated the rest of the season, we're in.  If we lose a single game, we have a 99.1% chance.  If we lose two games, we have an 88.5% chance, and if we lose three games we have a 63% chance.  But, should we go 14-4 in our remaining 18 games, our odds of making the playoffs plummets to 32.7%.

Going 13-3 from here on means we'll have won 25 of our last 28 games and we'll still only have a 63% chance of advancing to the playoffs.  In layman's terms, it's too damn late.  Where the hell was this in June?

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