DeMar DeRozan had a hell of a game last night against the Milwaukee Bucks. When it was all said and done, he had 52 points, a new Raptors record.
It's worth noting I watched on television and did not attend this game. That's a key detail because I was in attendance for both Vince Carter's 51 point game in 2000 and Terrence Ross's 51 point game in 2014. That coincidence led to some interesting math.
If (at the time of Terrence Ross's 51)
- Probability of 50+ points Raptors = 2/1,600
- I'd gone to 12 games out of the 1,600
- And everything is independent (not necessarily true but probably good enough)
Then out of 1,000,000 simulations of 12 games, then probability
- 0/12 games with 50+ is 98.50%
- 1/12 game with 50+ is 1.50%
- 2/12 games with 50+ is 0.0045% (ie. if 1,000,000 people independently went to 12 games, only 45 would see both 50+ games)
So, there was a 0.0045% chance of that happening. Although now that DeRozan has the new record, I suppose none of it matters.
Although DeRozan did require overtime to set the record...